Yankees deserved worse

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last six years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  (Actually, I'm so busy I'm just adapting last year's post with new data but no new detailed analysis.)  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2013:

	nW%	pW%	W%
Tigers	.625355	.609571	.574074
Red Sox	.599679	.617879	.598765
Athletics	.584148	.592586	.592593
Braves	.572496	.602609	.592593
Rays	.571333	.536663	.564417
Cardinals	.568902	.622317	.598765
Pirates	.565861	.542993	.580247
Dodgers	.563914	.549686	.567901
Reds	.553068	.577061	.555556
Rangers	.536918	.562732	.558282
Indians	.533376	.553830	.567901
Nationals	.533291	.521403	.530864
Angels	.503557	.497510	.481481
Orioles	.496955	.522644	.524691
Royals	.493184	.534393	.530864
Giants	.490391	.457097	.469136
Diamondbacks	.486358	.493370	.500000
Brewers	.482904	.467624	.456790
Blue Jays	.476158	.472594	.456790
Rockies	.470711	.466332	.456790
Cubs	.466649	.438557	.407407
Mets	.457462	.454444	.456790
Mariners	.456226	.414277	.438272
Padres	.449523	.443245	.469136
Yankees	.440003	.485457	.524691
White Sox	.438222	.414021	.388889
Phillies	.425329	.407173	.450617
Twins	.415268	.387795	.407407
Marlins	.394382	.396072	.382716
Astros	.350777	.353694	.314815

So this year the luckiest teams were the Yankees, Royals and Indians; the unluckiest were the Cubs, Tigers and White Sox.  The Yankees were epically lucky, more than twice as lucky as the next-luckiest team; they were in the playoff race late in the season but actually deserved to finish almost six games behind the Blue Jays—amazingly, they were even worse than the lowly Cubs.  The teams that made the playoffs were almost exactly the ten actually best teams; the Rangers were really slightly better than the Indians, but otherwise every team to make the playoffs was better than every team to miss the playoffs.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

	Red Sox over Rays	Tigers over Red Sox	Tigers over Braves
Rays over Indians
	Tigers over Athletics
	Braves over Dodgers	Braves over Cardinals
Pirates over Reds	Cardinals over Pirates

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

	Red Sox over Indians	Athletics over Red Sox	Athletics over Reds
Indians over Rays
	Athletics over Tigers
	Dodgers over Braves	Reds over Dodgers
Reds over Pirates	Reds over Cardinals

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C