Repeat of last year's World Series?
Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last eleven years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season. The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2018:
nW% | pW% | W% | |
---|---|---|---|
Astros | .642414 | .675428 | .635802 |
Dodgers | .628896 | .623713 | .564417 |
Red Sox | .609712 | .635185 | .666667 |
Yankees | .599109 | .608342 | .617284 |
Athletics | .582831 | .584950 | .598765 |
Rays | .572413 | .546929 | .555556 |
Indians | .567910 | .604999 | .561728 |
Brewers | .562571 | .561301 | .588957 |
Braves | .561871 | .565644 | .555556 |
Nationals | .552453 | .555882 | .506173 |
Cubs | .552293 | .575090 | .582822 |
Cardinals | .524177 | .542837 | .543210 |
Rockies | .522768 | .520991 | .558282 |
Diamondbacks | .512143 | .533499 | .506173 |
Mariners | .496427 | .477597 | .549383 |
Pirates | .493447 | .499339 | .509317 |
Mets | .490566 | .479498 | .475309 |
Angels | .486871 | .499366 | .493827 |
Phillies | .485483 | .466821 | .493827 |
Twins | .465049 | .477634 | .481481 |
Blue Jays | .446514 | .427329 | .450617 |
Reds | .441841 | .426094 | .413580 |
Giants | .431721 | .432821 | .450617 |
Padres | .423482 | .401735 | .407407 |
Rangers | .419389 | .436166 | .413580 |
White Sox | .418987 | .384664 | .382716 |
Tigers | .404777 | .394604 | .395062 |
Royals | .385066 | .380352 | .358025 |
Marlins | .379331 | .358750 | .391304 |
Orioles | .351535 | .340793 | .290123 |
So this year the luckiest teams were the Red Sox, Mariners and Rockies; the unluckiest were the Dodgers, Orioles and Nationals. Only one of the best seven teams was from the National League. Only the five actually best teams made the playoffs; if the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Rays and Nationals would be in and the Cubs and Rockies would be out. If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, no division champions would change—in fact, there'd be only one minor change in the final positions: The White Sox would finish 2 games ahead of the Tigers instead of 2 games behind them in the AL Central. The Nationals would take the wild card ahead of the Rockies. Because of divisional alignments, the Rays still wouldn't make the playoffs despite being better than the Indians. And the Astros, not the Red Sox, would have the best record in baseball and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:
Red Sox over Yankees | Astros over Red Sox | Astros over Dodgers | |
Yankees over Athletics | |||
Astros over Indians | |||
Dodgers over Braves | Dodgers over Brewers | ||
Cubs over Rockies | Brewers over Cubs | ||
But what I'm rooting for is very different:
Athletics over Red Sox | Athletics over Indians | Athletics over Cubs | |
Athletics over Yankees | |||
Indians over Astros | |||
Dodgers over Braves | Cubs over Dodgers | ||
Cubs over Rockies | Cubs over Brewers | ||
I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C
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