04 October 2016

Year of the Cub

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last nine years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2016:

nW%pW%W%
Cubs.668397.664640.639752
Red Sox.621439.605962.574074
Nationals.592000.599543.586420
Dodgers.570874.558219.561728
Blue Jays.566575.559517.549383
Indians.555688.563363.583851
Giants.554156.556929.537037
Cardinals.549562.541052.530864
Tigers.535488.518033.534161
Mets.531894.538309.537037
Mariners.521023.537790.530864
Orioles.510273.518181.549383
Rockies.502655.491951.462963
Astros.500817.514765.518519
Rangers.489922.504809.586420
Rays.489653.472932.419753
Yankees.489244.485437.518519
Marlins.487651.481528.490683
White Sox.477393.481066.481481
Brewers.465970.459656.450617
Pirates.459386.482161.484472
Braves.453149.417239.422360
Royals.448659.475605.500000
Athletics.447134.430431.425926
Angels.444426.493664.456790
Diamondbacks.437592.423523.425926
Twins.428857.405941.364198
Padres.413678.447349.419753
Reds.405368.420057.419753
Phillies.396215.380592.438272

So this year the luckiest teams were the Rangers, Royals, Phillies and Orioles; the unluckiest were the Rays, Twins and Red Sox.  The seven actually best teams made the playoffs; if the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Cardinals and Tigers would be in and the Orioles and Rangers would be out.  The Cubs won 103 games but deserved to win 108, more than they've won in a season since before they won the World Series.  Five teams better than the Rangers will be watching the playoffs at home; for the second year in a row, they've won the AL West despite deserving a losing record.  If a team's winning more games than their statistics would predict is evidence of superior managing, then Jeff Banister must be one of the best managers in baseball.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Blue Jays over RangersRed Sox over Blue JaysCubs over Red Sox
Blue Jays over Orioles
 Red Sox over Indians
Nationals over DodgersCubs over Nationals
Giants over MetsCubs over Giants
 

But what I'm rooting for is a little different:

 Blue Jays over RangersBlue Jays over Red SoxBlue Jays over Cubs
Blue Jays over Orioles
 Red Sox over Indians
Dodgers over NationalsCubs over Dodgers
Mets over GiantsCubs over Mets
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

All the way, Jays!

28 February 2016

Predictive triangles

Surrey were champion county in 1830, 1891 and 1953, all consecutive triangular numbers.  Therefore, I predict Surrey will win the 2016 County Championship.  They'll win it in 2080 too, if it still exists.

05 October 2015

Blue Jays best in 2015

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last eight years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  (Actually, I'm so excited about my favorite team that I'll provide a little more analysis than usual.)  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2015:

nW%pW%W%
Blue Jays.610976.627539.574074
Dodgers.586700.552070.567901
Astros.583087.575002.530864
Cubs.578721.556969.598765
Indians.562274.520263.503106
Nationals.559369.546408.512346
Pirates.555723.571133.604938
Mets.552256.549309.555556
Giants.544751.547620.518519
Cardinals.543269.594446.617284
Yankees.528173.541241.537037
Rays.524661.501423.493827
Royals.517025.555477.586420
Diamondbacks.497184.504470.487654
Athletics.494963.477505.419753
Red Sox.492611.496952.481481
Angels.488482.490413.524691
Mariners.487364.453747.469136
Rangers.485508.511097.543210
Orioles.484895.513014.500000
Tigers.474345.430405.459627
Marlins.465058.454022.438272
Twins.454986.497378.512346
Reds.454094.425562.395062
Padres.440252.446477.456790
White Sox.439502.445515.469136
Brewers.436810.446245.419753
Rockies.418224.438295.419753
Braves.390727.373589.413580
Phillies.372472.384782.388889

So this year the luckiest teams were the Cardinals, Royals, Rangers and Twins; the unluckiest were the Athletics, Indians and Reds.  Perhaps the most interesting division was the AL West; not only was the final weekend of the season exciting, but the true strengths of the teams were hardly recognized in the standings.  The Athletics finished last but really played better than all but the Astros; the Rangers finished first but deserved to be last.  If the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Indians, Nationals and Giants would be in and the Yankees, Royals and Rangers would be out.  Nine teams better than the Rangers will be watching the playoffs at home.  The teams with the three best records in baseball were all in the NL Central, but none was one of the three truly best teams; actually, they deserved to finish in the opposite order: Cubs, Pirates, Cardinals.  Very unusually, the three best teams in baseball (Blue Jays, Dodgers, Astros) were actually unlucky and deserved better records, and the three worst teams (Phillies, Braves, Rockies) deserved even worse records.

As a longtime Blue Jays fan, the most exciting development for me is to see them make the playoffs for the first time since 1993's championship year, and as the best team in baseball.  GM Alex Anthopoulos's trade-deadline moves have been very successful, and even without baseball's best record many see the Jays as the favorite to win it all.  In the ALDS the Jays will face the Rangers, matching the best and worst playoff teams.  Unfortunately, anything can happen in a five-game series.  Ironically, the Blue Jays' World Series opponents in 1992 and 1993, the Braves and Phillies, were the worst teams in baseball this year.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Astros over RoyalsBlue Jays over AstrosBlue Jays over Dodgers
Astros over Yankees
 Blue Jays over Rangers
Dodgers over MetsDodgers over Cubs
Cubs over PiratesCubs over Cardinals
 

And what I'm rooting for is only slightly different:

 Royals over AstrosBlue Jays over RoyalsBlue Jays over Cubs
Astros over Yankees
 Blue Jays over Rangers
Mets over DodgersCubs over Mets
Cubs over PiratesCubs over Cardinals
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

All the way, Jays!

29 September 2014

Missouri teams sneak in

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last five years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  (Actually, I'm so busy I'm just adapting last year's post with new data but no new detailed analysis.)  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2014:

nW%pW%W%
Angels.590428.592508.604938
Nationals.590284.595752.592593
Athletics.585115.609173.543210
Dodgers.577539.568916.580247
Pirates.561452.535499.543210
Orioles.548153.578495.592593
Giants.537648.536440.543210
Tigers.536835.532512.555556
Rays.526315.490385.475309
Mariners.524282.561398.537037
Blue Jays.517765.524015.512346
Indians.514968.511073.524691
Cardinals.512238.511979.555556
Royals.496797.519370.549383
Brewers.496051.495100.506173
Yankees.485451.478140.518519
Cubs.482200.435832.450617
Rockies.480081.463399.407407
Marlins.479829.479890.475309
Braves.478881.481237.487654
Mets.467106.508071.487654
Astros.466099.436623.432099
Reds.456053.487115.469136
Twins.455437.462029.432099
White Sox.455236.436999.450617
Padres.454984.465479.475309
Phillies.448682.452459.450617
Red Sox.446516.445214.438272
Diamondbacks.424982.414950.395062
Rangers.402902.412383.413580

So this year the luckiest teams were the Royals, Orioles and Cardinals; the unluckiest were the Rockies, Rays and Athletics.  The Yankees weren't as lucky as last year, but they deserved to have a losing record and finish in fourth place, not second.  The Rangers were really the worse Texas team by a much greater margin than the standings showed.  The eight actually best teams made the playoffs, but the other two teams to make it, the Cardinals and Royals, were very lucky and deserved it less than the Rays, Mariners, Blue Jays and Indians.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Angels over AthleticsAngels over OriolesAngels over Nationals
Athletics over Royals
 Orioles over Tigers
Dodgers over CardinalsNationals over Dodgers
Pirates over GiantsNationals over Pirates
 

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

 Athletics over AngelsAthletics over OriolesAthletics over Pirates
Athletics over Royals
 Orioles over Tigers
Cardinals over DodgersPirates over Cardinals
Pirates over GiantsPirates over Nationals
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

01 October 2013

Yankees deserved worse

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last six years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  (Actually, I'm so busy I'm just adapting last year's post with new data but no new detailed analysis.)  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2013:

nW%pW%W%
Tigers.625355.609571.574074
Red Sox.599679.617879.598765
Athletics.584148.592586.592593
Braves.572496.602609.592593
Rays.571333.536663.564417
Cardinals.568902.622317.598765
Pirates.565861.542993.580247
Dodgers.563914.549686.567901
Reds.553068.577061.555556
Rangers.536918.562732.558282
Indians.533376.553830.567901
Nationals.533291.521403.530864
Angels.503557.497510.481481
Orioles.496955.522644.524691
Royals.493184.534393.530864
Giants.490391.457097.469136
Diamondbacks.486358.493370.500000
Brewers.482904.467624.456790
Blue Jays.476158.472594.456790
Rockies.470711.466332.456790
Cubs.466649.438557.407407
Mets.457462.454444.456790
Mariners.456226.414277.438272
Padres.449523.443245.469136
Yankees.440003.485457.524691
White Sox.438222.414021.388889
Phillies.425329.407173.450617
Twins.415268.387795.407407
Marlins.394382.396072.382716
Astros.350777.353694.314815

So this year the luckiest teams were the Yankees, Royals and Indians; the unluckiest were the Cubs, Tigers and White Sox.  The Yankees were epically lucky, more than twice as lucky as the next-luckiest team; they were in the playoff race late in the season but actually deserved to finish almost six games behind the Blue Jays—amazingly, they were even worse than the lowly Cubs.  The teams that made the playoffs were almost exactly the ten actually best teams; the Rangers were really slightly better than the Indians, but otherwise every team to make the playoffs was better than every team to miss the playoffs.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Red Sox over RaysTigers over Red SoxTigers over Braves
Rays over Indians
 Tigers over Athletics
Braves over DodgersBraves over Cardinals
Pirates over RedsCardinals over Pirates
 

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

 Red Sox over IndiansAthletics over Red SoxAthletics over Reds
Indians over Rays
 Athletics over Tigers
Dodgers over BravesReds over Dodgers
Reds over PiratesReds over Cardinals
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

04 October 2012

Orioles are pretenders

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last five years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  (Actually, I'm so busy I'm just adapting last year's post with new data but no new detailed analysis.)  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2012:

nW%pW%W%
Nationals.589195.593822.604938
Rays.583080.585590.555556
Cardinals.575973.575360.543210
Rangers.571450.560788.574074
Yankees.570996.583977.586420
Angels.555373.542371.549383
Tigers.547411.536659.543210
Braves.542011.570060.580247
Athletics.541275.567967.580247
Reds.537664.558771.598765
Giants.527751.546093.580247
Diamondbacks.526562.529575.500000
White Sox.517898.546172.524691
Dodgers.515708.529635.530864
Brewers.506830.526057.512346
Phillies.506569.502683.500000
Orioles.503351.504520.574074
Pirates.487526.484121.487654
Mets.483991.460334.456790
Padres.474604.460393.469136
Red Sox.467745.457294.425926
Mariners.462011.476956.462963
Marlins.455711.421519.425926
Royals.444776.455043.444444
Twins.439111.422255.407407
Blue Jays.432886.458587.450617
Indians.430236.393439.419753
Rockies.426849.427078.395062
Cubs.405081.403487.376543
Astros.384377.362327.339506

So this year the luckiest teams were the Orioles, Reds and Giants; the unluckiest were the Astros, Red Sox and Cardinals.  The Nationals deserved to have the best record in baseball but the Rays were actually close behind, even though they finished third in the AL East and missed the postseason.  The Rays and Angels didn't make the playoffs even though they were really better than more than one team that did.  Every team in the playoffs was lucky to win as many games as they did except for the Cardinals (very unlucky) and Tigers (slightly unlucky).  The Orioles are by far the worst team in the playoffs; they deserved to finish barely over .500, but they finished just behind the Yankees and earned a wild-card berth.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Yankees over RangersYankees over TigersNationals over Yankees
Rangers over Orioles
 Tigers over Athletics
Reds over GiantsNationals over Reds
Cardinals over BravesNationals over Cardinals
 

But here's what I'm rooting for:

 Rangers over YankeesAthletics over RangersAthletics over Reds
Rangers over Orioles
 Athletics over Tigers
Reds over GiantsReds over Cardinals
Cardinals over BravesCardinals over Nationals
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

29 September 2011

Red Sox deserved better yet again

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last four years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  (Actually, I'm so busy I'm just adapting last year's post with new data but no new detailed analysis.)  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2011:

nW%pW%W%
Rangers.619564.605199.592593
Red Sox.615862.577884.555556
Phillies.587510.633263.629630
Yankees.573866.624234.598765
Tigers.568963.546329.586420
Brewers.565024.555720.592593
Cardinals.555746.543971.555556
Rays.547264.564168.561728
Braves.530747.526419.549383
Dodgers.523325.523300.509317
Giants.515273.493624.530864
Diamondbacks.512743.545236.580247
Angels.509286.523918.530864
Reds.497204.509432.487654
Mets.489826.484962.475309
Marlins.486833.447046.444444
Nationals.484523.486281.496894
White Sox.482104.465055.487654
Blue Jays.481998.489050.500000
Royals.480274.480382.438272
Rockies.478011.476364.450617
Athletics.475615476515.456790
Indians.469122.465040.493827
Padres.454000.486323.438272
Cubs.451705.434079.438272
Mariners.432221.412190.413580
Orioles.415420.411949.425926
Pirates.407165.429730.444444
Astros.396697.384120.345679
Twins.371774.382598.388889

So this year the luckiest teams were the Diamondbacks, Phillies and Pirates; the unluckiest were the Red Sox, Astros, Marlins and Royals.  The Rangers deserved to have the best record in baseball but the Red Sox were actually close behind.  The Red Sox, Braves, Dodgers and Giants didn't make the playoffs even though they were really better than some teams that did.  Every team in the playoffs was lucky to win as many games as they did except for the Rangers and Cardinals, who were slightly unlucky.  The Diamondbacks are the worst team in the playoffs; they deserved to finish behind both the Dodgers and the Giants, but they finished in first place by eight games.  The 2011 Red Sox may be the best team to miss the playoffs in many years.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

Yankees over TigersRangers over YankeesRangers over Phillies
Rangers over Rays
Brewers over DiamondbacksPhillies over Brewers
Phillies over Cardinals

But here's what I'm rooting for:

Tigers over YankeesRangers over TigersPhillies over Rangers
Rangers over Rays
Diamondbacks over BrewersPhillies over Diamondbacks
Phillies over Cardinals

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

04 October 2010

Red Sox deserved better

Predicting the baseball postseason is a tradition on this still near-defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last three years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  (Actually, I'm so busy I'm just adapting last year's post with new data but no new detailed analysis.)  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2010:

nW%pW%W%
Yankees.585972.596998.586420
Red Sox.571691.543272.549383
Braves.571388.572598.561728
Reds.559742.564878.561728
Rangers.558152.561853.555556
Rockies.550320.532580.512346
Phillies.548805.584957.598765
Giants.547321.580989.567901
Twins.546392.569008.580247
Cardinals.538330.562892.530864
Rays.538080.595649.592593
Tigers.532365.504899.500000
Blue Jays.529362.516654.524691
White Sox.519933.530139.543210
Athletics.516039.526248.500000
Padres.513639.561467.555556
Dodgers.508014.483172.493827
Marlins.493185.501274.493827
Brewers.487449.468235.475309
Cubs.477239.448455.462963
Mets.463235.502798.487654
Nationals.454897.443190.425926
Angels.453522.486109.493827
Diamondbacks.452800.427700.401235
Royals.443835.399307.413580
Indians.433936.430933.425926
Orioles.416793.388744.407407
Astros.404867.419912.469136
Mariners.401393.362730.376543
Pirates.358490.329242.351852

So this year the luckiest teams were the Astros, Rays and Phillies; the unluckiest were the Diamondbacks, Rockies and Tigers.  The Yankees deserved to have the best record in baseball but the Red Sox were actually close behind.  The Red Sox, Rockies and Cardinals didn't make the playoffs even though they were really better than some teams that did.  Every team in the playoffs was lucky to win as many games as they did except for the Braves and Rangers, who were slightly unlucky.  Surprisingly, the Rays are the worst team in the playoffs; they deserved to finish about six games behind the Red Sox, but they finished seven games ahead of them.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

Rangers over RaysYankees over RangersYankees over Braves
Yankees over Twins
Reds over PhilliesBraves over Reds
Braves over Giants

But here's what I'm rooting for:

Rangers over RaysRangers over TwinsReds over Rangers
Twins over Yankees
Reds over PhilliesReds over Giants
Giants over Braves

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

11 November 2009

Approved!

My favorite voting reform, approval voting, is mentioned in today's xkcd comic as a tooltip (hover your mouse over the comic image to see it).  Very cool.  And, speaking of approval voting, here's a press release that analyzes some interesting anomalies in this month's elections that approval voting would fix.