Approved!

My favorite voting reform, approval voting, is mentioned in today's xkcd comic as a tooltip (hover your mouse over the comic image to see it).  Very cool.  And, speaking of approval voting, here's a press release that analyzes some interesting anomalies in this month's elections that approval voting would fix.

Another postseason without the Jays

Predicting the baseball postseason is now a tradition on this otherwise near-defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last two years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2009:

	nW%	pW%	W%
Yankees	.617779	.588215	.635802
Dodgers	.604922	.609897	.586420
Rockies	.557546	.553467	.567901
Red Sox	.554619	.576957	.586420
Cardinals	.551377	.559907	.561728
Rays	.548008	.528773	.518519
Braves	.543312	.562280	.530864
Phillies	.531833	.566153	.574074
Cubs	.531712	.523212	.515528
Angels	.530636	.567610	.598765
Twins	.520369	.530050	.533742
Rangers	.517763	.526400	.537037
Marlins	.512924	.503570	.537037
Blue Jays	.508989	.515742	.462963
Giants	.503124	.533160	.543210
White Sox	.498027	.494973	.487654
Diamondbacks	.497025	.462281	.432099
Mariners	.496602	.464322	.524691
Tigers	.482815	.498770	.527607
Athletics	.479727	.498796	.462963
Brewers	.468335	.481170	.493827
Mets	.459683	.445051	.432099
Indians	.454076	.448735	.401235
Reds	.451787	.467261	.481481
Padres	.448974	.415383	.462963
Royals	.443433	.407340	.401235
Nationals	.435496	.406054	.364198
Astros	.419356	.418277	.456790
Orioles	.417295	.424023	.395062
Pirates	.408288	.414566	.385093

So this year the luckiest teams were the Angels, Tigers and Phillies; the unluckiest were the Nationals, Diamondbacks and Indians.  The Yankees had the best record in baseball and deserved to.  The Rays, Braves and Cubs didn't make the playoffs even though they were really better than some teams that did.  Every team in the playoffs was lucky to win as many games as they did except for the Dodgers, who were about three games unlucky.  The Twins are the worst team in the playoffs, but they were better this season than the tiebreaker-losing Tigers.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

Yankees over Twins	Yankees over Red Sox	Yankees over Dodgers
Red Sox over Angels
Dodgers over Cardinals	Dodgers over Rockies
Rockies over Phillies

Unlike last year, what I'm rooting for is very different from my predictions:

Twins over Yankees	Red Sox over Twins	Red Sox over Phillies
Red Sox over Angels
Cardinals over Dodgers	Phillies over Cardinals
Phillies over Rockies

For what it's worth, I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

As for my Blue Jays, my last blog post must have cursed them.  They were legit, but, after an ultimately disappointing season, they fired J. P. Ricciardi, their general manager, and hired his assistant, Alex Anthopoulos, on an interim basis.  I'm not sure yet what I think about the move since I liked J. P. but recognized his flaws and I know little about Anthopoulos.  The funny thing about J. P. is that he seemed to be able to build a better team with less money; increasing the team's payroll seemed to decrease the wisdom of the contracts he gave out.  Theo Epstein has done a better job taking advantage of the huge bankroll in Boston.  What really makes no sense to me is that the Jays fired J. P. but kept Cito Gaston as manager.  Cito's a good guy but is certainly not the manager to squeeze every bit of value out of a team's players.  I'll always regret that the Jays decided not to hire Davey Johnson before the 1998 season, and now I wish they'd replace Gaston with someone like Manny Acta.

Anyway, would they still have fired J. P. if the Jays had won the 82 games they deserved to given their performance on the field this year?  It takes a long time for the luck to even out in baseball.

Blue Jays are legit

I just completed my first full year of teaching college, and I haven't been able to make much time for research, much less blogging.  It's been months since I blogged at all and longer since I had anything important to say.  So I'll have to ease back into it . . .

With their just-completed four-game sweep of the White Sox, my Blue Jays currently have the best record in the American League, winning almost two-thirds of their games.  They were widely picked to finish fourth in the AL East, so the natural question is whether they've been lucky to get to such a good start to the season.  The same kind of analysis I did in 2007 will tell us how good the teams have really been so far, largely factoring out the kind of luck that's unlikely to last.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2009, including all games through yesterday's:

	nW%	pW%	W%
Dodgers	.671059	.666821	.675000
Blue Jays	.636715	.632316	.658537
Mets	.600752	.561126	.552632
Brewers	.588384	.595621	.631579
Royals	.580791	.550095	.526316
Rangers	.576806	.570418	.621622
Tigers	.550852	.576040	.555556
Red Sox	.537457	.541316	.578947
Rays	.524886	.554702	.500000
Braves	.524516	.463669	.486486
Angels	.524109	.497534	.513514
Cubs	.521802	.539270	.583333
Yankees	.515264	.471900	.552632
Reds	.507029	.516733	.540541
Cardinals	.502803	.527861	.552632
Pirates	.495702	.524279	.447368
Rockies	.494701	.509838	.405405
Twins	.481084	.458476	.461538
Phillies	.466061	.527294	.555556
Nationals	.462360	.402410	.297297
Indians	.462151	.453064	.358974
Diamondbacks	.450943	.419420	.378378
Padres	.442951	.374305	.421053
Astros	.436358	.450016	.472222
Marlins	.433456	.452729	.473684
Mariners	.412214	.420218	.461538
Orioles	.403796	.427943	.421053
White Sox	.393866	.401755	.405405
Giants	.391831	.456506	.513514
Athletics	.373073	.418811	.371429

So the Blue Jays haven't been nearly as lucky as one might assume—they've been playing legitimately good baseball, and they deserve to have the best record in the American League.  Of course, that doesn't mean that they'll keep winning all season, especially since they haven't played many games against their tough AL East rivals.  But it's an encouraging start.

The luckiest teams so far have been the Giants, Phillies and Cubs, while the Nationals, Indians and Rockies have been the least lucky.  The Giants are lucky to be in second place rather than in the NL West basement, and the Phillies are lucky to be in a virtual tie with the Mets instead of 5 games back.  Nationals and Indians fans should be patient, as those teams deserve to be much closer to .500 than they are.  The surprising Royals deserve to be leading the AL Central and the White Sox should by all rights be in last place.  On the other hand, the lowly Athletics actually deserve to have the worst record in baseball right now, which makes me wonder whether this guy is right about Billy Beane.

I'm on a boat a-and it's goin' fast a-and I got a nautical-themed pashmina afgha-an

The Lonely Island has been on a roll.  On Saturday's SNL, they premiered a new classic, I'm on a Boat.  Last month they gave us We Like Sportz, a sequel to their Just 2 Guyz, and a beautiful new take on the Doogie Howser Theme with Neil Patrick Harris.  (Only the dudes would take the opportunity to make fun of a musician as obscure to the average American as Mike Oldfield.)  And their new album is out tomorrow!

Oh yeah, and here's the funniest music video ever (warning: contains movie violence).

The way you bagged cans got me bothered and hot

Last night the return of Virgania Horsen was only the second best SNL Digital Short—we got more proof that SNL's hiring of The Lonely Island was a genius move, and for the first time Andy was joined by Jorma and Akiva (the other two members of TLI).  The best SNLDS yet?  Most-a-ly.

Elsewhere again

In an infinite number of other parallel universes, the Republicans took back Congress to provide a check on Obama's power.  The Robs in those universes are much less concerned for the future of our economy than this one.

At least the Phillies won the Series in this universe, and isn't that more important anyway?

Elsewhere

In an infinite number of parallel universes, the bailout failed to pass and the Cubs swept the Dodgers.  The Robs in those universes are very happy.

Real good

It's October again, time for my predictions for the playoffs.  I'll present the same kind of analysis I did last year, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2008:

	nW%	pW%	W%
Red Sox	.610946	.589104	.586420
Cubs	.603984	.609085	.602484
Rays	.560113	.564963	.598765
Blue Jays	.556137	.571527	.530864
Dodgers	.552834	.535256	.518519
White Sox	.550722	.548613	.546012
Mets	.542775	.550644	.549383
Yankees	.539291	.537372	.549383
Diamondbacks	.537358	.508982	.506173
Phillies	.531918	.573249	.567901
Cardinals	.530346	.532819	.530864
Brewers	.526723	.538733	.555556
Angels	.516943	.542486	.617284
Marlins	.513352	.501786	.521739
Indians	.510257	.525693	.500000
Braves	.506736	.485062	.444444
Twins	.500555	.548722	.539877
Rangers	.496077	.467703	.487654
Tigers	.490483	.480377	.456790
Rockies	.471172	.456340	.456790
Athletics	.465682	.469891	.465839
Astros	.461321	.480512	.534161
Royals	.459870	.444219	.462963
Padres	.457011	.417586	.388889
Orioles	.455094	.451888	.422360
Giants	.439190	.422608	.444444
Reds	.425489	.441781	.456790
Mariners	.404741	.414163	.376543
Nationals	.401473	.386557	.366460
Pirates	.384832	.416346	.413580

So this year the luckiest teams were the Angels, Astros, Twins and Rays; the unluckiest were the Padres and Braves.  The Red Sox deserved to have the best record in baseball, and the Angels didn't deserve anything close to it—in fact, they are the worst team in the playoffs.  My Blue Jays were the fourth-best team in baseball but only finished fourth in their division (though really they were better than the Yankees).  Four of the five best AL teams are in the AL East.

Anyway, based on these results, it's reasonable to predict:

Red Sox over Angels	Red Sox over Rays	Red Sox over Cubs
Rays over White Sox
Cubs over Dodgers	Cubs over Phillies
Phillies over Brewers

But what I'm rooting for is just slightly different:

Red Sox over Angels	Red Sox over Rays	Cubs over Red Sox
Rays over White Sox
Cubs over Dodgers	Cubs over Phillies
Phillies over Brewers

May the best teams win, then, at least until the Series.  Go Cubbies!

Something

This blog has been dead for a long while now as I've begun a new full-time teaching position.  I keep thinking I'll find time to post something substantial, but for now I'll go with something trivial and meaningless.

Question:  How many times has Alabama beaten Auburn in football at home in Tuscaloosa?

Answer:  Zero.  Auburn is 6-0 in Tuscaloosa.  Alabama will get another chance to win their first true-home-game victory in the Iron Bowl ever this November.