Lucky Florida teams

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last thirteen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2020:

	nW%	pW%	W%
Dodgers	0.713753	0.711692	0.716667
Padres	0.617547	0.633491	0.616667
Braves	0.608826	0.585723	0.583333
White Sox	0.596763	0.598544	0.583333
Twins	0.581751	0.601101	0.600000
Yankees	0.578828	0.570060	0.550000
Rays	0.573901	0.604882	0.666667
Giants	0.560897	0.503070	0.483333
Indians	0.543751	0.577642	0.583333
Reds	0.543271	0.500000	0.516667
Angels	0.527212	0.459890	0.433333
Mets	0.526750	0.466147	0.433333
Athletics	0.525733	0.575541	0.600000
Brewers	0.515599	0.469586	0.483333
Orioles	0.509350	0.467813	0.416667
Cardinals	0.505368	0.521451	0.517241
Cubs	0.499782	0.545210	0.566667
Astros	0.490059	0.506606	0.483333
Blue Jays	0.479987	0.485101	0.533333
Phillies	0.474304	0.492585	0.466667
Royals	0.457575	0.457840	0.433333
Nationals	0.440515	0.487679	0.433333
Red Sox	0.417903	0.416592	0.400000
Mariners	0.403726	0.419991	0.450000
Marlins	0.394620	0.434106	0.516667
Diamondbacks	0.389136	0.457889	0.416667
Rockies	0.386206	0.387711	0.433333
Tigers	0.382194	0.389928	0.396552
Pirates	0.375709	0.362696	0.316667
Rangers	0.369462	0.352885	0.366667

So this year the luckiest teams were the Marlins and Rays; the unluckiest were the Angels, Mets and Orioles.  The Giants didn't make it into the 16-team playoffs despite being the eighth-best team in baseball; the Marlins made it in despite being the sixth-worst team in baseball.  Unpredictability is amplified with such a short season, and the playoffs will be more chaotic than usual with so many teams.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

Athletics over Astros	White Sox over Athletics	White Sox over Yankees	Dodgers over White Sox
White Sox over Twins
Yankees over Indians	Yankees over Rays
Rays over Blue Jays
Cubs over Marlins	Braves over Cubs	Dodgers over Braves
Braves over Reds
Padres over Cardinals	Dodgers over Padres
Dodgers over Brewers

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

Athletics over Astros	Athletics over Twins	Blue Jays over Athletics	Blue Jays over Reds
Twins over White Sox
Indians over Yankees	Blue Jays over Indians
Blue Jays over Rays
Cubs over Marlins	Reds over Cubs	Reds over Padres
Reds over Braves
Padres over Cardinals	Padres over Brewers
Brewers over Dodgers

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C