Astros and Dodgers best again
Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last twelve years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season. The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2019:
nW% | pW% | W% | |
---|---|---|---|
Astros | .677502 | .660185 | .660494 |
Dodgers | .670291 | .662417 | .654321 |
Twins | .598220 | .599059 | .623457 |
Rays | .593823 | .572202 | .592593 |
Yankees | .576377 | .609711 | .635802 |
Nationals | .574007 | .584791 | .574074 |
Athletics | .571746 | .598100 | .598765 |
Red Sox | .551824 | .538578 | .518519 |
Braves | .547440 | .563884 | .598765 |
Cubs | .545871 | .557790 | .518519 |
Indians | .544647 | .571520 | .574074 |
Mets | .534406 | .532305 | .530864 |
Cardinals | .532302 | .565188 | .561728 |
Brewers | .524753 | .501788 | .549383 |
Reds | .514368 | .493520 | .462963 |
Diamondbacks | .511116 | .541098 | .524691 |
Padres | .467561 | .433718 | .432099 |
Phillies | .463987 | .488331 | .500000 |
Angels | .458322 | .444822 | .444444 |
Mariners | .444125 | .425571 | .419753 |
Giants | .439959 | .440293 | .475309 |
Rockies | .437650 | .437461 | .438272 |
Rangers | .435699 | .463187 | .481481 |
Blue Jays | .435260 | .440144 | .413580 |
White Sox | .423228 | .426697 | .447205 |
Pirates | .419484 | .416669 | .425926 |
Royals | .390277 | .396650 | .364198 |
Marlins | .385985 | .377663 | .351852 |
Orioles | .379034 | .367415 | .333333 |
Tigers | .344497 | .304070 | .291925 |
So this year the luckiest teams were the Yankees, Braves and Rangers; the unluckiest were the Tigers, Reds and Orioles. Only two of the best eight teams were from the National League. Only the seven actually best teams made the playoffs; if the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Red Sox and Cubs would be in and the Cardinals and Brewers would be out. If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, half of the division champions would change: The Rays would finish 3 games ahead of the Yankees, the Nationals would finish 4 games ahead of the Braves and the Cubs would finish 2 games ahead of the Cardinals. The Astros had the best record in baseball and deserved it; The Tigers had the worst record in baseball and deserved it.
Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:
Astros over Rays | Astros over Twins | Astros over Dodgers | |
Rays over Athletics | |||
Twins over Yankees | |||
Braves over Cardinals | Dodgers over Braves | ||
Nationals over Brewers | Dodgers over Nationals | ||
But what I'm rooting for is very different:
Athletics over Astros | Athletics over Twins | Athletics over Cardinals | |
Athletics over Rays | |||
Twins over Yankees | |||
Cardinals over Braves | Cardinals over Brewers | ||
Brewers over Nationals | Brewers over Dodgers | ||
I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C
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