Orioles luckiest again

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last sixteen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2023:

	nW%	pW%	W%
Braves	.628991	.625206	.641975
Dodgers	.615060	.616491	.617284
Rays	.606959	.615520	.611111
Rangers	.592598	.593753	.555556
Phillies	.574371	.548940	.555556
Twins	.569984	.575368	.537037
Padres	.560562	.567679	.506173
Giants	.555666	.563684	.487654
Astros	.554854	.576969	.555556
Cubs	.547713	.556793	.512346
Orioles	.546171	.579018	.623457
Blue Jays	.544412	.548324	.549383
Brewers	.532569	.553756	.567901
Yankees	.500741	.483319	.506173
Red Sox	.492118	.497636	.481481
Marlins	.488502	.463865	.521739
Tigers	.482595	.448533	.481481
Mariners	.481235	.470466	.543210
Diamondbacks	.478548	.490893	.518519
Mets	.476872	.491154	.459627
Angels	.472545	.447616	.450617
Guardians	.468575	.476447	.469136
Reds	.455652	.478332	.506173
Pirates	.452119	.439700	.469136
Cardinals	.448205	.435237	.438272
Royals	.406154	.392117	.345679
White Sox	.388724	.378256	.376543
Nationals	.385441	.414715	.438272
Rockies	.358665	.373275	.364198
Athletics	.331579	.302274	.308642

So this year the luckiest teams were the Orioles, Mariners and Nationals, and the unluckiest teams were the Giants, Royals and Padres.  In fact, the Orioles finished as the single luckiest team for the second year in a row, but this year they deserved their playoff spot.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, half of the division champions would change:  The Rays would finish ahead of the Orioles, the Rangers would finish ahead of the Astros and the Cubs would finish ahead of the Brewers.  If the twelve actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Padres, Giants and Cubs would be in and the Brewers, Marlins and Diamondbacks would be out.  The Braves were a bit lucky to win so many games, but they indeed deserved the best record in baseball.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

	Twins over Astros	Rays over Twins	Braves over Rays
Twins over Blue Jays
Rays over Rangers	Rays over Orioles
	Dodgers over Brewers	Braves over Dodgers
Brewers over Diamondbacks
Phillies over Marlins	Braves over Phillies

But what I'm rooting for would give us a rematch of the 1993 Series:

	Blue Jays over Astros	Blue Jays over Rangers	Blue Jays over Phillies
Blue Jays over Twins
Rangers over Rays	Rangers over Orioles
	Brewers over Dodgers	Phillies over Brewers
Brewers over Diamondbacks
Phillies over Marlins	Phillies over Braves

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C