Dodgers and Astros continue excellence
Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last fifteen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season. The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2022:
nW% | pW% | W% | |
---|---|---|---|
Dodgers | .697697 | .714554 | .685185 |
Astros | .660354 | .655946 | .654321 |
Yankees | .639752 | .656092 | .611111 |
Braves | .621624 | .616300 | .623457 |
Mets | .582821 | .608986 | .623457 |
Blue Jays | .568327 | .560207 | .567901 |
Cardinals | .562958 | .587043 | .574074 |
Phillies | .550545 | .539558 | .537037 |
Guardians | .541168 | .543885 | .567901 |
Brewers | .540217 | .523947 | .530864 |
Padres | .537667 | .530139 | .549383 |
Rays | .527732 | .537124 | .530864 |
Mariners | .525782 | .546596 | .555556 |
Twins | .518329 | .507956 | .481481 |
Giants | .505139 | .512302 | .500000 |
Angels | .499028 | .468136 | .450617 |
White Sox | .487367 | .479790 | .500000 |
Red Sox | .482221 | .468767 | .481481 |
Rangers | .466922 | .477294 | .419753 |
Orioles | .465776 | .490595 | .512346 |
Diamondbacks | .453840 | .475901 | .456790 |
Cubs | .452090 | .451326 | .456790 |
Marlins | .422251 | .435005 | .425926 |
Rockies | .414243 | .399056 | .419753 |
Royals | .395013 | .393867 | .401235 |
Tigers | .391875 | .388919 | .407407 |
Reds | .386796 | .396609 | .382716 |
Pirates | .379282 | .356039 | .382716 |
Nationals | .376609 | .345471 | .339506 |
Athletics | .347303 | .364285 | .370370 |
So this year the luckiest teams were the Orioles, Mets and Mariners, and the unluckiest teams were the Angels, Rangers and Nationals. This year, Nostradamian win percentage correlated highly with actual win percentage: If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, none of the division champions would change. If the twelve actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Brewers would be in and the Mariners would be out. The Yankees get much of the attention, and the Athletics pioneered analytics, but the Dodgers and Astros are clearly the modern baseball dynasties.
Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:
Astros over Blue Jays | Astros over Yankees | Dodgers over Astros | |
Blue Jays over Mariners | |||
Guardians over Rays | Yankees over Guardians | ||
Braves over Cardinals | Dodgers over Braves | ||
Cardinals over Phillies | |||
Mets over Padres | Dodgers over Mets | ||
But what I'm rooting for would give us a rematch of the 1993 Series:
Blue Jays over Astros | Blue Jays over Guardians | Blue Jays over Phillies | |
Blue Jays over Mariners | |||
Guardians over Rays | Guardians over Yankees | ||
Phillies over Braves | Phillies over Padres | ||
Phillies over Cardinals | |||
Padres over Mets | Padres over Dodgers | ||
I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home