Dodgers and Astros continue excellence

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last fifteen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2022:

	nW%	pW%	W%
Dodgers	.697697	.714554	.685185
Astros	.660354	.655946	.654321
Yankees	.639752	.656092	.611111
Braves	.621624	.616300	.623457
Mets	.582821	.608986	.623457
Blue Jays	.568327	.560207	.567901
Cardinals	.562958	.587043	.574074
Phillies	.550545	.539558	.537037
Guardians	.541168	.543885	.567901
Brewers	.540217	.523947	.530864
Padres	.537667	.530139	.549383
Rays	.527732	.537124	.530864
Mariners	.525782	.546596	.555556
Twins	.518329	.507956	.481481
Giants	.505139	.512302	.500000
Angels	.499028	.468136	.450617
White Sox	.487367	.479790	.500000
Red Sox	.482221	.468767	.481481
Rangers	.466922	.477294	.419753
Orioles	.465776	.490595	.512346
Diamondbacks	.453840	.475901	.456790
Cubs	.452090	.451326	.456790
Marlins	.422251	.435005	.425926
Rockies	.414243	.399056	.419753
Royals	.395013	.393867	.401235
Tigers	.391875	.388919	.407407
Reds	.386796	.396609	.382716
Pirates	.379282	.356039	.382716
Nationals	.376609	.345471	.339506
Athletics	.347303	.364285	.370370

So this year the luckiest teams were the Orioles, Mets and Mariners, and the unluckiest teams were the Angels, Rangers and Nationals.  This year, Nostradamian win percentage correlated highly with actual win percentage:  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, none of the division champions would change.  If the twelve actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Brewers would be in and the Mariners would be out.  The Yankees get much of the attention, and the Athletics pioneered analytics, but the Dodgers and Astros are clearly the modern baseball dynasties.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

	Astros over Blue Jays	Astros over Yankees	Dodgers over Astros
Blue Jays over Mariners
Guardians over Rays	Yankees over Guardians
	Braves over Cardinals	Dodgers over Braves
Cardinals over Phillies
Mets over Padres	Dodgers over Mets

But what I'm rooting for would give us a rematch of the 1993 Series:

	Blue Jays over Astros	Blue Jays over Guardians	Blue Jays over Phillies
Blue Jays over Mariners
Guardians over Rays	Guardians over Yankees
	Phillies over Braves	Phillies over Padres
Phillies over Cardinals
Padres over Mets	Padres over Dodgers

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C