Ohio teams sneak into playoffs

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this blog, so I'll do the same kind of analysis I've done the last eighteen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2025:

	nW%	pW%	W%
Yankees	.615772	.596955	.580247
Dodgers	.584964	.585566	.574074
Cubs	.578502	.590665	.567901
Phillies	.574465	.582876	.592593
Brewers	.574397	.608084	.598765
Red Sox	.561645	.568540	.549383
Mets	.552070	.531480	.512346
Mariners	.547908	.545038	.555556
Padres	.547546	.555856	.555556
Blue Jays	.545487	.546289	.580247
Tigers	.529078	.542238	.537037
Rangers	.521471	.555914	.500000
Rays	.519275	.520296	.475309
Astros	.518047	.514220	.537037
Reds	.512194	.522913	.512346
Diamondbacks	.511395	.503483	.493827
Braves	.500958	.493725	.469136
Royals	.500662	.509945	.506173
Giants	.491502	.513831	.500000
Athletics	.487979	.450527	.469136
Marlins	.472475	.446109	.487654
Pirates	.469477	.453895	.438272
Twins	.466017	.440293	.432099
Guardians	.461766	.495751	.543210
Cardinals	.444655	.458849	.481481
Orioles	.424493	.430983	.462963
White Sox	.419317	.437647	.370370
Angels	.397737	.401532	.444444
Nationals	.387326	.379381	.407407
Rockies	.300232	.272492	.265432

So this year the luckiest teams were the Guardians, Angels and Orioles, and the unluckiest teams were the White Sox, Rays and Mets.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, half of the division champions would change:  The Yankees would finish ahead of the Blue Jays, the Tigers would finish ahead of the Guardians (who in fact deserved to finish fourth, just like last year) and the Cubs would finish ahead of the Brewers.  If the twelve actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Mets and Rangers would be in and the Reds and Guardians would be out.  The Guardians were by far the luckiest team in baseball and didn't deserve to finish anywhere near .500, much less in the playoffs.  The Rockies were quite unlucky but did deserve the worst record in baseball.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

Tigers over Guardians	Mariners over Tigers	Yankees over Mariners	Yankees over Dodgers
Yankees over Red Sox	Yankees over Blue Jays
Dodgers over Reds	Dodgers over Phillies	Dodgers over Cubs
Cubs over Padres	Cubs over Brewers

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

Guardians over Tigers	Mariners over Guardians	Blue Jays over Mariners	Blue Jays over Reds
Red Sox over Yankees	Blue Jays over Red Sox
Reds over Dodgers	Reds over Phillies	Reds over Cubs
Cubs over Padres	Cubs over Brewers

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C