23 October 2007

My World Series pRediction

The Red Sox successfully came back from 3-1 down to beat the Indians and join the Rockies in the Series, which starts tomorrow night.  (By the way, anyone but me agree that Youk deserved to be the ALCS MVP over Josh Beckett?)  Sure, the Sox were a better team than the Rockies this year, and if we can make the reasonable assumption that they have between a 50% and 60% chance (exclusive) of beating them in each game, then the single most likely result is Red Sox 4 games, Rockies 2.  (If they have between a 60% and 75% chance of winning each game, which seems unlikely, then the single most likely result is 4 games to 1; it would take a winning probability greater than 75% to make a sweep the most likely result.)  But, despite the fact that my Nostradamian analysis already predicted Sox over Rox, I won't base my prediction on that technical kind of stuff.

Only twice before in history have two teams with nicknames beginning with R faced each other in the World Series.  The Red Sox beat the Robins 4-1 in 1916 but then they lost 4-3 to the Reds in 1975.  Based on the fact that the Sox are 7-5 in World Series against fellow R-teams, I predict Red Sox 4 games, Rockies 3.  (Though I might be more likely to go with 4-2 if Tim Wakefield were healthy and playing.)

The last time the team with baseball's best Nostradamian record won it all was Boston in 2004 (even though they only got into the playoffs as a wild card), on which more soon.


Post a Comment

<< Home