A look ahead

Last week I analyzed how the major-league standings would look if all teams were equally lucky in the way that runs fell among games and hits and outs fell among innings.  Well, unfortunately, not all teams are equally lucky, and only the real results matter.  But the real won-loss records so far don't predict the future; in fact, a team's Nostradamian record is a far better predictor of future wins and losses than past wins and losses.  So (using the All-Star break as the cutoff point) let's use each team's Nostradamian record to predict its winning percentage for the rest of the season and see how the final standings would look:

AL East	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
Red Sox	97.4–64.6	.600940	57–40	.587629
Rays	93.1–68.9	.574946	55–39	.585106
Yankees	85.5–76.5	.527664	50–45	.526316
Blue Jays	83.0–79.0	.512472	47–48	.494737
Orioles	78.6–83.4	.484937	45–48	.483871

AL Central	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
White Sox	94.2–67.8	.581437	54–40	.574468
Twins	85.0–77.0	.524404	53–42	.557895
Tigers	82.2–79.8	.507135	47–47	.500000
Indians	72.6–89.4	.448405	41–53	.436170
Royals	72.0–90.0	.444402	43–53	.447917

AL West	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
Angels	89.6–72.4	.552936	57–38	.600000
Athletics	88.8–73.2	.548438	51–44	.536842
Rangers	83.1–78.9	.513119	50–46	.520833
Mariners	65.6–96.4	.404811	37–58	.389474

NL East	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
Mets	87.8–74.2	.542000	51–44	.536842
Phillies	87.7–74.3	.541186	52–44	.541667
Marlins	82.7–79.3	.510535	50–45	.526316
Braves	82.7–79.3	.510198	45–50	.473684
Nationals	61.0–101.0	.376426	36–60	.375000

NL Central	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
Cubs	97.1–64.9	.599642	57–38	.600000
Cardinals	88.3–73.7	.544952	53–43	.552083
Brewers	85.8–76.2	.529915	52–43	.547368
Reds	75.2–86.8	.464356	46–50	.479167
Astros	72.4–89.6	.447143	44–51	.463158
Pirates	70.4–91.6	.434335	44–50	.468085

NL West	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
Diamondbacks	83.0–79.0	.512538	47–48	.494737
Dodgers	79.7–82.3	.491871	46–49	.484211
Giants	69.7–92.3	.430035	40–55	.421053
Rockies	68.5–93.5	.422900	39–57	.406250
Padres	68.0–94.0	.419531	37–58	.389474

For example, the Blue Jays have won 47 games so far and have 67 post-All-Star-break games.  I multiplied 67 by their Nostradamian record, .537618, to get 36.0, the number of those games they can expect to win, giving them an extrapolated final record of about 83–79.  Of course, this approach doesn't account for roster changes (such as injuries and the Sabathia, Harden and Blanton trades) or differences in schedule, but it beats assuming that winning percentages won't change.

So the Red Sox, White Sox, Cubs and Diamondbacks are likely to extend their division leads, while the Angels are likely to lose most of theirs and the NL East should remain very tight.  The Braves have been so unlucky so far that they're projected to finish fourth even though they have the best Nostradamian record in their division.

coolstandings.com, using different assumptions than I do, calculates not likely final standings but the rough probability that each team will make the playoffs.