Real good

It's October again, time for my predictions for the playoffs.  I'll present the same kind of analysis I did last year, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2008:

	nW%	pW%	W%
Red Sox	.610946	.589104	.586420
Cubs	.603984	.609085	.602484
Rays	.560113	.564963	.598765
Blue Jays	.556137	.571527	.530864
Dodgers	.552834	.535256	.518519
White Sox	.550722	.548613	.546012
Mets	.542775	.550644	.549383
Yankees	.539291	.537372	.549383
Diamondbacks	.537358	.508982	.506173
Phillies	.531918	.573249	.567901
Cardinals	.530346	.532819	.530864
Brewers	.526723	.538733	.555556
Angels	.516943	.542486	.617284
Marlins	.513352	.501786	.521739
Indians	.510257	.525693	.500000
Braves	.506736	.485062	.444444
Twins	.500555	.548722	.539877
Rangers	.496077	.467703	.487654
Tigers	.490483	.480377	.456790
Rockies	.471172	.456340	.456790
Athletics	.465682	.469891	.465839
Astros	.461321	.480512	.534161
Royals	.459870	.444219	.462963
Padres	.457011	.417586	.388889
Orioles	.455094	.451888	.422360
Giants	.439190	.422608	.444444
Reds	.425489	.441781	.456790
Mariners	.404741	.414163	.376543
Nationals	.401473	.386557	.366460
Pirates	.384832	.416346	.413580

So this year the luckiest teams were the Angels, Astros, Twins and Rays; the unluckiest were the Padres and Braves.  The Red Sox deserved to have the best record in baseball, and the Angels didn't deserve anything close to it—in fact, they are the worst team in the playoffs.  My Blue Jays were the fourth-best team in baseball but only finished fourth in their division (though really they were better than the Yankees).  Four of the five best AL teams are in the AL East.

Anyway, based on these results, it's reasonable to predict:

Red Sox over Angels	Red Sox over Rays	Red Sox over Cubs
Rays over White Sox
Cubs over Dodgers	Cubs over Phillies
Phillies over Brewers

But what I'm rooting for is just slightly different:

Red Sox over Angels	Red Sox over Rays	Cubs over Red Sox
Rays over White Sox
Cubs over Dodgers	Cubs over Phillies
Phillies over Brewers

May the best teams win, then, at least until the Series.  Go Cubbies!