19 May 2009

Blue Jays are legit

I just completed my first full year of teaching college, and I haven't been able to make much time for research, much less blogging.  It's been months since I blogged at all and longer since I had anything important to say.  So I'll have to ease back into it . . .

With their just-completed four-game sweep of the White Sox, my Blue Jays currently have the best record in the American League, winning almost two-thirds of their games.  They were widely picked to finish fourth in the AL East, so the natural question is whether they've been lucky to get to such a good start to the season.  The same kind of analysis I did in 2007 will tell us how good the teams have really been so far, largely factoring out the kind of luck that's unlikely to last.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2009, including all games through yesterday's:

nW%pW%W%
Dodgers.671059.666821.675000
Blue Jays.636715.632316.658537
Mets.600752.561126.552632
Brewers.588384.595621.631579
Royals.580791.550095.526316
Rangers.576806.570418.621622
Tigers.550852.576040.555556
Red Sox.537457.541316.578947
Rays.524886.554702.500000
Braves.524516.463669.486486
Angels.524109.497534.513514
Cubs.521802.539270.583333
Yankees.515264.471900.552632
Reds.507029.516733.540541
Cardinals.502803.527861.552632
Pirates.495702.524279.447368
Rockies.494701.509838.405405
Twins.481084.458476.461538
Phillies.466061.527294.555556
Nationals.462360.402410.297297
Indians.462151.453064.358974
Diamondbacks.450943.419420.378378
Padres.442951.374305.421053
Astros.436358.450016.472222
Marlins.433456.452729.473684
Mariners.412214.420218.461538
Orioles.403796.427943.421053
White Sox.393866.401755.405405
Giants.391831.456506.513514
Athletics.373073.418811.371429

So the Blue Jays haven't been nearly as lucky as one might assume—they've been playing legitimately good baseball, and they deserve to have the best record in the American League.  Of course, that doesn't mean that they'll keep winning all season, especially since they haven't played many games against their tough AL East rivals.  But it's an encouraging start.

The luckiest teams so far have been the Giants, Phillies and Cubs, while the Nationals, Indians and Rockies have been the least lucky.  The Giants are lucky to be in second place rather than in the NL West basement, and the Phillies are lucky to be in a virtual tie with the Mets instead of 5 games back.  Nationals and Indians fans should be patient, as those teams deserve to be much closer to .500 than they are.  The surprising Royals deserve to be leading the AL Central and the White Sox should by all rights be in last place.  On the other hand, the lowly Athletics actually deserve to have the worst record in baseball right now, which makes me wonder whether this guy is right about Billy Beane.

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