01 October 2024

White Sox not really worst ever

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this blog, so I'll do the same kind of analysis I've done the last seventeen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2024:

nW%pW%W%
Dodgers.593887.592660.604938
Yankees.581344.590005.580247
Braves.569425.567411.549383
Orioles.566794.553462.561728
Padres.565903.558084.574074
Astros.558712.559745.546584
Phillies.558353.570728.586420
Mets.555892.544263.549383
Mariners.552457.549098.524691
Brewers.548758.587130.574074
Red Sox.539745.502443.500000
Tigers.530170.527624.530864
Cubs.522845.543556.512346
Twins.522576.504336.506173
Royals.521487.560176.530864
Diamondbacks.520452.553423.549383
Guardians.501965.559698.571429
Giants.494374.496056.493827
Cardinals.491107.469111.512346
Blue Jays.474338.453503.456790
Rays.470809.457464.493827
Reds.468769.503284.475309
Rangers.463088.464626.481481
Athletics.454721.421764.425926
Pirates.444007.451878.469136
Nationals.435367.433452.438272
Angels.406086.397515.388889
Marlins.398745.375565.382716
Rockies.363640.362249.376543
White Sox.317990.296470.253086

So this year the luckiest teams were the Guardians, Diamondbacks and Phillies, and the unluckiest teams were the White Sox, Red Sox, Athletics and Mariners.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, two of the division champions would change:  The Tigers would finish ahead of the Guardians (who in fact deserved to finish fourth) and the Braves would finish ahead of the Phillies.  If the twelve actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Mariners and Red Sox would be in and the Royals and Guardians would be out.  The Dodgers were a bit lucky but did deserve the best record in baseball; the White Sox deserved the worst record in baseball but not the historically bad record they ended up with.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

Astros over TigersAstros over GuardiansYankees over AstrosDodgers over Yankees
 
Orioles over RoyalsYankees over Orioles
 
Mets over BrewersPhillies over MetsDodgers over Phillies
 
Braves over PadresDodgers over Braves
 

But what I'm rooting for would give us a rematch of the 1980 Series:

Astros over TigersGuardians over AstrosRoyals over GuardiansPhillies over Royals
 
Royals over OriolesRoyals over Yankees
 
Brewers over MetsPhillies over BrewersPhillies over Padres
 
Padres over BravesPadres over Dodgers
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

21 December 2023

Approval Voting is better without runoffs

Most of my research deals with various voting systems and how they can be manipulated by insincere voters.  For many reasons, I think approval voting is the best voting system for single-winner elections.  That's why I have supported The Center for Election Science.  Unfortunately, they've been inconsistent in their proposals for voting reform in different American cities.

Here's a simple example that shows why I don't recommend using runoffs with approval voting:  Say 100 voters are voting in an approval election with a runoff, and they have the following sincere preferences over three candidates A, B and C:

  • 45%:  A > B > C
  • 20%:  B > C > A
  • 35%:  C > B > A

Given these preferences, B would win an A/B runoff, C would win an A/C runoff and B would win a B/C runoff.  A would not win any runoff.  So, if all voters are at least roughly aware of the other preferences and are strategic, we may reasonably assume the following:

  • The A>B>C voters want an A/B or B/C runoff.
  • The B>C>A voters want an A/B or B/C runoff.
  • The C>B>A voters want an A/C runoff.

Therefore, the dominant approval strategies in the general election are

  • A>B>C voters:  B only
  • B>C>A voters:  B only
  • C>B>A voters:  A and C

Then, depending on the runoff rules, either B wins immediately or wins the runoff.  (Voting in the runoff itself is straightforward; insincerity is never rewarded.)  So the sincere Condorcet winner wins the election at equilibrium.  What's wrong with this result?  Well, the required strategy is complicated, which would amplify the power of the most sophisticated voters.  But, more importantly, the best strategies for 80% of the voters turned out to be strongly insincere:  They had to approve one candidate without also approving all candidates they preferred, destroying what is one of approval voting's most desirable properties.

Of course, this reasoning applies equally to range (or score) voting, which is why I don't support STAR voting, though it's certainly better than IRV (often now known as "RCV").

02 October 2023

Orioles luckiest again

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last sixteen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2023:

nW%pW%W%
Braves.628991.625206.641975
Dodgers.615060.616491.617284
Rays.606959.615520.611111
Rangers.592598.593753.555556
Phillies.574371.548940.555556
Twins.569984.575368.537037
Padres.560562.567679.506173
Giants.555666.563684.487654
Astros.554854.576969.555556
Cubs.547713.556793.512346
Orioles.546171.579018.623457
Blue Jays.544412.548324.549383
Brewers.532569.553756.567901
Yankees.500741.483319.506173
Red Sox.492118.497636.481481
Marlins.488502.463865.521739
Tigers.482595.448533.481481
Mariners.481235.470466.543210
Diamondbacks.478548.490893.518519
Mets.476872.491154.459627
Angels.472545.447616.450617
Guardians.468575.476447.469136
Reds.455652.478332.506173
Pirates.452119.439700.469136
Cardinals.448205.435237.438272
Royals.406154.392117.345679
White Sox.388724.378256.376543
Nationals.385441.414715.438272
Rockies.358665.373275.364198
Athletics.331579.302274.308642

So this year the luckiest teams were the Orioles, Mariners and Nationals, and the unluckiest teams were the Giants, Royals and Padres.  In fact, the Orioles finished as the single luckiest team for the second year in a row, but this year they deserved their playoff spot.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, half of the division champions would change:  The Rays would finish ahead of the Orioles, the Rangers would finish ahead of the Astros and the Cubs would finish ahead of the Brewers.  If the twelve actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Padres, Giants and Cubs would be in and the Brewers, Marlins and Diamondbacks would be out.  The Braves were a bit lucky to win so many games, but they indeed deserved the best record in baseball.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Twins over AstrosRays over TwinsBraves over Rays
Twins over Blue Jays
Rays over RangersRays over Orioles
 
 Dodgers over BrewersBraves over Dodgers
Brewers over Diamondbacks
Phillies over MarlinsBraves over Phillies
 

But what I'm rooting for would give us a rematch of the 1993 Series:

 Blue Jays over AstrosBlue Jays over RangersBlue Jays over Phillies
Blue Jays over Twins
Rangers over RaysRangers over Orioles
 
 Brewers over DodgersPhillies over Brewers
Brewers over Diamondbacks
Phillies over MarlinsPhillies over Braves
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

06 October 2022

Dodgers and Astros continue excellence

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last fifteen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2022:

nW%pW%W%
Dodgers.697697.714554.685185
Astros.660354.655946.654321
Yankees.639752.656092.611111
Braves.621624.616300.623457
Mets.582821.608986.623457
Blue Jays.568327.560207.567901
Cardinals.562958.587043.574074
Phillies.550545.539558.537037
Guardians.541168.543885.567901
Brewers.540217.523947.530864
Padres.537667.530139.549383
Rays.527732.537124.530864
Mariners.525782.546596.555556
Twins.518329.507956.481481
Giants.505139.512302.500000
Angels.499028.468136.450617
White Sox.487367.479790.500000
Red Sox.482221.468767.481481
Rangers.466922.477294.419753
Orioles.465776.490595.512346
Diamondbacks.453840.475901.456790
Cubs.452090.451326.456790
Marlins.422251.435005.425926
Rockies.414243.399056.419753
Royals.395013.393867.401235
Tigers.391875.388919.407407
Reds.386796.396609.382716
Pirates.379282.356039.382716
Nationals.376609.345471.339506
Athletics.347303.364285.370370

So this year the luckiest teams were the Orioles, Mets and Mariners, and the unluckiest teams were the Angels, Rangers and Nationals.  This year, Nostradamian win percentage correlated highly with actual win percentage:  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, none of the division champions would change.  If the twelve actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Brewers would be in and the Mariners would be out.  The Yankees get much of the attention, and the Athletics pioneered analytics, but the Dodgers and Astros are clearly the modern baseball dynasties.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Astros over Blue JaysAstros over YankeesDodgers over Astros
Blue Jays over Mariners
Guardians over RaysYankees over Guardians
 
 Braves over CardinalsDodgers over Braves
Cardinals over Phillies
Mets over PadresDodgers over Mets
 

But what I'm rooting for would give us a rematch of the 1993 Series:

 Blue Jays over AstrosBlue Jays over GuardiansBlue Jays over Phillies
Blue Jays over Mariners
Guardians over RaysGuardians over Yankees
 
 Phillies over BravesPhillies over Padres
Phillies over Cardinals
Padres over MetsPadres over Dodgers
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

04 October 2021

Best Blue Jays team since 2015

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last fourteen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2021:

nW%pW%W%
Dodgers.658826.671906.654321
Giants.635012.635058.660494
Astros.615526.621593.586420
Blue Jays.597655.609700.561728
White Sox.595228.601244.574074
Rays.588671.623192.617284
Brewers.572128.576885.586420
Braves.565929.584226.546584
Yankees.550275.527828.567901
Red Sox.528498.546295.567901
Cardinals.526901.522565.555556
Athletics.510203.535789.530864
Padres.509499.513369.487654
Reds.504500.515385.512346
Phillies.499604.493195.506173
Mets.498352.477557.475309
Nationals.479903.443281.401235
Indians.471884.493664.493827
Twins.469998.438748.450617
Angels.461637.451570.475309
Rockies.459213.466059.459627
Mariners.450767.467737.555556
Tigers.448364.462894.475309
Marlins.444847.446241.413580
Royals.437805.436919.456790
Cubs.422376.421055.438272
Rangers.391132.380896.370370
Diamondbacks.380847.377222.320988
Pirates.373419.360502.376543
Orioles.371278.336078.320988

So this year the luckiest team was the Mariners, and it wasn't close; they ended up almost sneaking into the playoffs with a 90–72 record even though they deserved a record closer to 73–89.  The unluckiest teams were the Nationals, Diamondbacks and Orioles, but the unluckiest good team was the Blue Jays, who only finished fourth in the AL East even though they were really the fourth-best team in baseball.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, just two of the division champions would change:  The Blue Jays would finish 2 games ahead of the Rays (and 8 games ahead of the Yankees) and the Dodgers would finish 4 games ahead of the Giants.  If the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Blue Jays would be in and the Cardinals would be out.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Rays over YankeesAstros over RaysDodgers over Astros
Yankees over Red Sox
 Astros over White Sox
Brewers over BravesDodgers over Brewers
Dodgers over CardinalsDodgers over Giants
 

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

 Red Sox over RaysRed Sox over AstrosRed Sox over Cardinals
Red Sox over Yankees
 Astros over White Sox
Brewers over BravesCardinals over Brewers
Cardinals over DodgersCardinals over Giants
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

28 September 2020

Lucky Florida teams

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last thirteen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2020:

nW%pW%W%
Dodgers0.7137530.7116920.716667
Padres0.6175470.6334910.616667
Braves0.6088260.5857230.583333
White Sox0.5967630.5985440.583333
Twins0.5817510.6011010.600000
Yankees0.5788280.5700600.550000
Rays0.5739010.6048820.666667
Giants0.5608970.5030700.483333
Indians0.5437510.5776420.583333
Reds0.5432710.5000000.516667
Angels0.5272120.4598900.433333
Mets0.5267500.4661470.433333
Athletics0.5257330.5755410.600000
Brewers0.5155990.4695860.483333
Orioles0.5093500.4678130.416667
Cardinals0.5053680.5214510.517241
Cubs0.4997820.5452100.566667
Astros0.4900590.5066060.483333
Blue Jays0.4799870.4851010.533333
Phillies0.4743040.4925850.466667
Royals0.4575750.4578400.433333
Nationals0.4405150.4876790.433333
Red Sox0.4179030.4165920.400000
Mariners0.4037260.4199910.450000
Marlins0.3946200.4341060.516667
Diamondbacks0.3891360.4578890.416667
Rockies0.3862060.3877110.433333
Tigers0.3821940.3899280.396552
Pirates0.3757090.3626960.316667
Rangers0.3694620.3528850.366667

So this year the luckiest teams were the Marlins and Rays; the unluckiest were the Angels, Mets and Orioles.  The Giants didn't make it into the 16-team playoffs despite being the eighth-best team in baseball; the Marlins made it in despite being the sixth-worst team in baseball.  Unpredictability is amplified with such a short season, and the playoffs will be more chaotic than usual with so many teams.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

Athletics over AstrosWhite Sox over AthleticsWhite Sox over YankeesDodgers over White Sox
White Sox over Twins
Yankees over IndiansYankees over Rays
Rays over Blue Jays
Cubs over MarlinsBraves over CubsDodgers over Braves
Braves over Reds
Padres over CardinalsDodgers over Padres
Dodgers over Brewers

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

Athletics over AstrosAthletics over TwinsBlue Jays over AthleticsBlue Jays over Reds
Twins over White Sox
Indians over YankeesBlue Jays over Indians
Blue Jays over Rays
Cubs over MarlinsReds over CubsReds over Padres
Reds over Braves
Padres over CardinalsPadres over Brewers
Brewers over Dodgers

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

30 September 2019

Astros and Dodgers best again

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last twelve years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2019:

nW%pW%W%
Astros.677502.660185.660494
Dodgers.670291.662417.654321
Twins.598220.599059.623457
Rays.593823.572202.592593
Yankees.576377.609711.635802
Nationals.574007.584791.574074
Athletics.571746.598100.598765
Red Sox.551824.538578.518519
Braves.547440.563884.598765
Cubs.545871.557790.518519
Indians.544647.571520.574074
Mets.534406.532305.530864
Cardinals.532302.565188.561728
Brewers.524753.501788.549383
Reds.514368.493520.462963
Diamondbacks.511116.541098.524691
Padres.467561.433718.432099
Phillies.463987.488331.500000
Angels.458322.444822.444444
Mariners.444125.425571.419753
Giants.439959.440293.475309
Rockies.437650.437461.438272
Rangers.435699.463187.481481
Blue Jays.435260.440144.413580
White Sox.423228.426697.447205
Pirates.419484.416669.425926
Royals.390277.396650.364198
Marlins.385985.377663.351852
Orioles.379034.367415.333333
Tigers.344497.304070.291925

So this year the luckiest teams were the Yankees, Braves and Rangers; the unluckiest were the Tigers, Reds and Orioles.  Only two of the best eight teams were from the National League.  Only the seven actually best teams made the playoffs; if the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Red Sox and Cubs would be in and the Cardinals and Brewers would be out.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, half of the division champions would change:  The Rays would finish 3 games ahead of the Yankees, the Nationals would finish 4 games ahead of the Braves and the Cubs would finish 2 games ahead of the Cardinals.  The Astros had the best record in baseball and deserved it; The Tigers had the worst record in baseball and deserved it.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Astros over RaysAstros over TwinsAstros over Dodgers
Rays over Athletics
 Twins over Yankees
Braves over CardinalsDodgers over Braves
Nationals over BrewersDodgers over Nationals
 

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

 Athletics over AstrosAthletics over TwinsAthletics over Cardinals
Athletics over Rays
 Twins over Yankees
Cardinals over BravesCardinals over Brewers
Brewers over NationalsBrewers over Dodgers
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

02 October 2018

Repeat of last year's World Series?

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last eleven years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2018:

nW%pW%W%
Astros.642414.675428.635802
Dodgers.628896.623713.564417
Red Sox.609712.635185.666667
Yankees.599109.608342.617284
Athletics.582831.584950.598765
Rays.572413.546929.555556
Indians.567910.604999.561728
Brewers.562571.561301.588957
Braves.561871.565644.555556
Nationals.552453.555882.506173
Cubs.552293.575090.582822
Cardinals.524177.542837.543210
Rockies.522768.520991.558282
Diamondbacks.512143.533499.506173
Mariners.496427.477597.549383
Pirates.493447.499339.509317
Mets.490566.479498.475309
Angels.486871.499366.493827
Phillies.485483.466821.493827
Twins.465049.477634.481481
Blue Jays.446514.427329.450617
Reds.441841.426094.413580
Giants.431721.432821.450617
Padres.423482.401735.407407
Rangers.419389.436166.413580
White Sox.418987.384664.382716
Tigers.404777.394604.395062
Royals.385066.380352.358025
Marlins.379331.358750.391304
Orioles.351535.340793.290123

So this year the luckiest teams were the Red Sox, Mariners and Rockies; the unluckiest were the Dodgers, Orioles and Nationals.  Only one of the best seven teams was from the National League.  Only the five actually best teams made the playoffs; if the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Rays and Nationals would be in and the Cubs and Rockies would be out.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, no division champions would change—in fact, there'd be only one minor change in the final positions:  The White Sox would finish 2 games ahead of the Tigers instead of 2 games behind them in the AL Central.  The Nationals would take the wild card ahead of the Rockies.  Because of divisional alignments, the Rays still wouldn't make the playoffs despite being better than the Indians.  And the Astros, not the Red Sox, would have the best record in baseball and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Red Sox over YankeesAstros over Red SoxAstros over Dodgers
Yankees over Athletics
 Astros over Indians
Dodgers over BravesDodgers over Brewers
Cubs over RockiesBrewers over Cubs
 

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

 Athletics over Red SoxAthletics over IndiansAthletics over Cubs
Athletics over Yankees
 Indians over Astros
Dodgers over BravesCubs over Dodgers
Cubs over RockiesCubs over Brewers
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

02 October 2017

Finally the Indians' turn?

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last ten years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2017:

nW%pW%W%
Indians.644021.663830.629630
Yankees.623690.617778.561728
Dodgers.620897.626809.641975
Astros.609607.611056.623457
Nationals.593533.589530.598765
Diamondbacks.577449.594370.574074
Cubs.572111.576184.567901
Cardinals.536145.534912.512346
Red Sox.534914.573306.574074
Rays.532958.493455.493827
Rockies.512520.538722.537037
Brewers.511367.522400.530864
Twins.501663.515408.524691
Mariners.493556.486776.481481
Athletics.492554.449257.462963
Marlins.479785.474852.475309
Rangers.472678.490369.481481
Angels.466345.500645.493827
Blue Jays.456683.443793.469136
Braves.453302.447697.444444
Royals.450858.445607.493827
Reds.449607.434823.419753
Mets.446459.427075.432099
Phillies.439353.442987.407407
Orioles.438031.443559.462963
Tigers.430429.411352.395062
Pirates.430112.458861.462963
White Sox.426643.431942.413580
Giants.408797.412056.395062
Padres.401517.365740.438272

So this year the luckiest teams were the Royals, Red Sox and Padres; the unluckiest were the Yankees, Rays and Tigers.  The seven actually best teams made the playoffs; if the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Cardinals and Rays would be in and the Twins and Rockies would be out.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, only one division champion would change:  The Yankees would finish about 14 games ahead of the Red Sox instead of 2 games behind.  The Royals would be 73–89 instead of 80–82, but would still finish in third place in the AL Central; the Athletics would move from last to 3rd and the Angels would move from 2nd to last in the AL West.  And the Indians, not the Dodgers, would have the best record in baseball and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Indians over YankeesIndians over AstrosIndians over Dodgers
Yankees over Twins
 Astros over Red Sox
Nationals over CubsDodgers over Nationals
Diamondbacks over RockiesDodgers over Diamondbacks
 

But here's what I'm rooting for:

 Indians over TwinsRed Sox over IndiansCubs over Red Sox
Twins over Yankees
 Red Sox over Astros
Cubs over NationalsCubs over Rockies
Rockies over DiamondbacksRockies over Dodgers
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C