04 October 2021

Best Blue Jays team since 2015

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last fourteen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2021:

nW%pW%W%
Dodgers.658826.671906.654321
Giants.635012.635058.660494
Astros.615526.621593.586420
Blue Jays.597655.609700.561728
White Sox.595228.601244.574074
Rays.588671.623192.617284
Brewers.572128.576885.586420
Braves.565929.584226.546584
Yankees.550275.527828.567901
Red Sox.528498.546295.567901
Cardinals.526901.522565.555556
Athletics.510203.535789.530864
Padres.509499.513369.487654
Reds.504500.515385.512346
Phillies.499604.493195.506173
Mets.498352.477557.475309
Nationals.479903.443281.401235
Indians.471884.493664.493827
Twins.469998.438748.450617
Angels.461637.451570.475309
Rockies.459213.466059.459627
Mariners.450767.467737.555556
Tigers.448364.462894.475309
Marlins.444847.446241.413580
Royals.437805.436919.456790
Cubs.422376.421055.438272
Rangers.391132.380896.370370
Diamondbacks.380847.377222.320988
Pirates.373419.360502.376543
Orioles.371278.336078.320988

So this year the luckiest team was the Mariners, and it wasn't close; they ended up almost sneaking into the playoffs with a 90–72 record even though they deserved a record closer to 73–89.  The unluckiest teams were the Nationals, Diamondbacks and Orioles, but the unluckiest good team was the Blue Jays, who only finished fourth in the AL East even though they were really the fourth-best team in baseball.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, just two of the division champions would change:  The Blue Jays would finish 2 games ahead of the Rays (and 8 games ahead of the Yankees) and the Dodgers would finish 4 games ahead of the Giants.  If the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Blue Jays would be in and the Cardinals would be out.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Rays over YankeesAstros over RaysDodgers over Astros
Yankees over Red Sox
 Astros over White Sox
Brewers over BravesDodgers over Brewers
Dodgers over CardinalsDodgers over Giants
 

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

 Red Sox over RaysRed Sox over AstrosRed Sox over Cardinals
Red Sox over Yankees
 Astros over White Sox
Brewers over BravesCardinals over Brewers
Cardinals over DodgersCardinals over Giants
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

28 September 2020

Lucky Florida teams

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last thirteen years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2020:

nW%pW%W%
Dodgers0.7137530.7116920.716667
Padres0.6175470.6334910.616667
Braves0.6088260.5857230.583333
White Sox0.5967630.5985440.583333
Twins0.5817510.6011010.600000
Yankees0.5788280.5700600.550000
Rays0.5739010.6048820.666667
Giants0.5608970.5030700.483333
Indians0.5437510.5776420.583333
Reds0.5432710.5000000.516667
Angels0.5272120.4598900.433333
Mets0.5267500.4661470.433333
Athletics0.5257330.5755410.600000
Brewers0.5155990.4695860.483333
Orioles0.5093500.4678130.416667
Cardinals0.5053680.5214510.517241
Cubs0.4997820.5452100.566667
Astros0.4900590.5066060.483333
Blue Jays0.4799870.4851010.533333
Phillies0.4743040.4925850.466667
Royals0.4575750.4578400.433333
Nationals0.4405150.4876790.433333
Red Sox0.4179030.4165920.400000
Mariners0.4037260.4199910.450000
Marlins0.3946200.4341060.516667
Diamondbacks0.3891360.4578890.416667
Rockies0.3862060.3877110.433333
Tigers0.3821940.3899280.396552
Pirates0.3757090.3626960.316667
Rangers0.3694620.3528850.366667

So this year the luckiest teams were the Marlins and Rays; the unluckiest were the Angels, Mets and Orioles.  The Giants didn't make it into the 16-team playoffs despite being the eighth-best team in baseball; the Marlins made it in despite being the sixth-worst team in baseball.  Unpredictability is amplified with such a short season, and the playoffs will be more chaotic than usual with so many teams.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

Athletics over AstrosWhite Sox over AthleticsWhite Sox over YankeesDodgers over White Sox
White Sox over Twins
Yankees over IndiansYankees over Rays
Rays over Blue Jays
Cubs over MarlinsBraves over CubsDodgers over Braves
Braves over Reds
Padres over CardinalsDodgers over Padres
Dodgers over Brewers

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

Athletics over AstrosAthletics over TwinsBlue Jays over AthleticsBlue Jays over Reds
Twins over White Sox
Indians over YankeesBlue Jays over Indians
Blue Jays over Rays
Cubs over MarlinsReds over CubsReds over Padres
Reds over Braves
Padres over CardinalsPadres over Brewers
Brewers over Dodgers

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

30 September 2019

Astros and Dodgers best again

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last twelve years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2019:

nW%pW%W%
Astros.677502.660185.660494
Dodgers.670291.662417.654321
Twins.598220.599059.623457
Rays.593823.572202.592593
Yankees.576377.609711.635802
Nationals.574007.584791.574074
Athletics.571746.598100.598765
Red Sox.551824.538578.518519
Braves.547440.563884.598765
Cubs.545871.557790.518519
Indians.544647.571520.574074
Mets.534406.532305.530864
Cardinals.532302.565188.561728
Brewers.524753.501788.549383
Reds.514368.493520.462963
Diamondbacks.511116.541098.524691
Padres.467561.433718.432099
Phillies.463987.488331.500000
Angels.458322.444822.444444
Mariners.444125.425571.419753
Giants.439959.440293.475309
Rockies.437650.437461.438272
Rangers.435699.463187.481481
Blue Jays.435260.440144.413580
White Sox.423228.426697.447205
Pirates.419484.416669.425926
Royals.390277.396650.364198
Marlins.385985.377663.351852
Orioles.379034.367415.333333
Tigers.344497.304070.291925

So this year the luckiest teams were the Yankees, Braves and Rangers; the unluckiest were the Tigers, Reds and Orioles.  Only two of the best eight teams were from the National League.  Only the seven actually best teams made the playoffs; if the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Red Sox and Cubs would be in and the Cardinals and Brewers would be out.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, half of the division champions would change:  The Rays would finish 3 games ahead of the Yankees, the Nationals would finish 4 games ahead of the Braves and the Cubs would finish 2 games ahead of the Cardinals.  The Astros had the best record in baseball and deserved it; The Tigers had the worst record in baseball and deserved it.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Astros over RaysAstros over TwinsAstros over Dodgers
Rays over Athletics
 Twins over Yankees
Braves over CardinalsDodgers over Braves
Nationals over BrewersDodgers over Nationals
 

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

 Athletics over AstrosAthletics over TwinsAthletics over Cardinals
Athletics over Rays
 Twins over Yankees
Cardinals over BravesCardinals over Brewers
Brewers over NationalsBrewers over Dodgers
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

02 October 2018

Repeat of last year's World Series?

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last eleven years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2018:

nW%pW%W%
Astros.642414.675428.635802
Dodgers.628896.623713.564417
Red Sox.609712.635185.666667
Yankees.599109.608342.617284
Athletics.582831.584950.598765
Rays.572413.546929.555556
Indians.567910.604999.561728
Brewers.562571.561301.588957
Braves.561871.565644.555556
Nationals.552453.555882.506173
Cubs.552293.575090.582822
Cardinals.524177.542837.543210
Rockies.522768.520991.558282
Diamondbacks.512143.533499.506173
Mariners.496427.477597.549383
Pirates.493447.499339.509317
Mets.490566.479498.475309
Angels.486871.499366.493827
Phillies.485483.466821.493827
Twins.465049.477634.481481
Blue Jays.446514.427329.450617
Reds.441841.426094.413580
Giants.431721.432821.450617
Padres.423482.401735.407407
Rangers.419389.436166.413580
White Sox.418987.384664.382716
Tigers.404777.394604.395062
Royals.385066.380352.358025
Marlins.379331.358750.391304
Orioles.351535.340793.290123

So this year the luckiest teams were the Red Sox, Mariners and Rockies; the unluckiest were the Dodgers, Orioles and Nationals.  Only one of the best seven teams was from the National League.  Only the five actually best teams made the playoffs; if the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Rays and Nationals would be in and the Cubs and Rockies would be out.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, no division champions would change—in fact, there'd be only one minor change in the final positions:  The White Sox would finish 2 games ahead of the Tigers instead of 2 games behind them in the AL Central.  The Nationals would take the wild card ahead of the Rockies.  Because of divisional alignments, the Rays still wouldn't make the playoffs despite being better than the Indians.  And the Astros, not the Red Sox, would have the best record in baseball and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Red Sox over YankeesAstros over Red SoxAstros over Dodgers
Yankees over Athletics
 Astros over Indians
Dodgers over BravesDodgers over Brewers
Cubs over RockiesBrewers over Cubs
 

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

 Athletics over Red SoxAthletics over IndiansAthletics over Cubs
Athletics over Yankees
 Indians over Astros
Dodgers over BravesCubs over Dodgers
Cubs over RockiesCubs over Brewers
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

02 October 2017

Finally the Indians' turn?

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last ten years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2017:

nW%pW%W%
Indians.644021.663830.629630
Yankees.623690.617778.561728
Dodgers.620897.626809.641975
Astros.609607.611056.623457
Nationals.593533.589530.598765
Diamondbacks.577449.594370.574074
Cubs.572111.576184.567901
Cardinals.536145.534912.512346
Red Sox.534914.573306.574074
Rays.532958.493455.493827
Rockies.512520.538722.537037
Brewers.511367.522400.530864
Twins.501663.515408.524691
Mariners.493556.486776.481481
Athletics.492554.449257.462963
Marlins.479785.474852.475309
Rangers.472678.490369.481481
Angels.466345.500645.493827
Blue Jays.456683.443793.469136
Braves.453302.447697.444444
Royals.450858.445607.493827
Reds.449607.434823.419753
Mets.446459.427075.432099
Phillies.439353.442987.407407
Orioles.438031.443559.462963
Tigers.430429.411352.395062
Pirates.430112.458861.462963
White Sox.426643.431942.413580
Giants.408797.412056.395062
Padres.401517.365740.438272

So this year the luckiest teams were the Royals, Red Sox and Padres; the unluckiest were the Yankees, Rays and Tigers.  The seven actually best teams made the playoffs; if the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Cardinals and Rays would be in and the Twins and Rockies would be out.  If all teams had the win-loss records they deserved, only one division champion would change:  The Yankees would finish about 14 games ahead of the Red Sox instead of 2 games behind.  The Royals would be 73–89 instead of 80–82, but would still finish in third place in the AL Central; the Athletics would move from last to 3rd and the Angels would move from 2nd to last in the AL West.  And the Indians, not the Dodgers, would have the best record in baseball and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Indians over YankeesIndians over AstrosIndians over Dodgers
Yankees over Twins
 Astros over Red Sox
Nationals over CubsDodgers over Nationals
Diamondbacks over RockiesDodgers over Diamondbacks
 

But here's what I'm rooting for:

 Indians over TwinsRed Sox over IndiansCubs over Red Sox
Twins over Yankees
 Red Sox over Astros
Cubs over NationalsCubs over Rockies
Rockies over DiamondbacksRockies over Dodgers
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

04 October 2016

Year of the Cub

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last nine years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2016:

nW%pW%W%
Cubs.668397.664640.639752
Red Sox.621439.605962.574074
Nationals.592000.599543.586420
Dodgers.570874.558219.561728
Blue Jays.566575.559517.549383
Indians.555688.563363.583851
Giants.554156.556929.537037
Cardinals.549562.541052.530864
Tigers.535488.518033.534161
Mets.531894.538309.537037
Mariners.521023.537790.530864
Orioles.510273.518181.549383
Rockies.502655.491951.462963
Astros.500817.514765.518519
Rangers.489922.504809.586420
Rays.489653.472932.419753
Yankees.489244.485437.518519
Marlins.487651.481528.490683
White Sox.477393.481066.481481
Brewers.465970.459656.450617
Pirates.459386.482161.484472
Braves.453149.417239.422360
Royals.448659.475605.500000
Athletics.447134.430431.425926
Angels.444426.493664.456790
Diamondbacks.437592.423523.425926
Twins.428857.405941.364198
Padres.413678.447349.419753
Reds.405368.420057.419753
Phillies.396215.380592.438272

So this year the luckiest teams were the Rangers, Royals, Phillies and Orioles; the unluckiest were the Rays, Twins and Red Sox.  The seven actually best teams made the playoffs; if the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Cardinals and Tigers would be in and the Orioles and Rangers would be out.  The Cubs won 103 games but deserved to win 108, more than they've won in a season since before they won the World Series.  Five teams better than the Rangers will be watching the playoffs at home; for the second year in a row, they've won the AL West despite deserving a losing record.  If a team's winning more games than their statistics would predict is evidence of superior managing, then Jeff Banister must be one of the best managers in baseball.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Blue Jays over RangersRed Sox over Blue JaysCubs over Red Sox
Blue Jays over Orioles
 Red Sox over Indians
Nationals over DodgersCubs over Nationals
Giants over MetsCubs over Giants
 

But what I'm rooting for is a little different:

 Blue Jays over RangersBlue Jays over Red SoxBlue Jays over Cubs
Blue Jays over Orioles
 Red Sox over Indians
Dodgers over NationalsCubs over Dodgers
Mets over GiantsCubs over Mets
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

All the way, Jays!

28 February 2016

Predictive triangles

Surrey were champion county in 1830, 1891 and 1953, all consecutive triangular numbers.  Therefore, I predict Surrey will win the 2016 County Championship.  They'll win it in 2080 too, if it still exists.

05 October 2015

Blue Jays best in 2015

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last eight years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  (Actually, I'm so excited about my favorite team that I'll provide a little more analysis than usual.)  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2015:

nW%pW%W%
Blue Jays.610976.627539.574074
Dodgers.586700.552070.567901
Astros.583087.575002.530864
Cubs.578721.556969.598765
Indians.562274.520263.503106
Nationals.559369.546408.512346
Pirates.555723.571133.604938
Mets.552256.549309.555556
Giants.544751.547620.518519
Cardinals.543269.594446.617284
Yankees.528173.541241.537037
Rays.524661.501423.493827
Royals.517025.555477.586420
Diamondbacks.497184.504470.487654
Athletics.494963.477505.419753
Red Sox.492611.496952.481481
Angels.488482.490413.524691
Mariners.487364.453747.469136
Rangers.485508.511097.543210
Orioles.484895.513014.500000
Tigers.474345.430405.459627
Marlins.465058.454022.438272
Twins.454986.497378.512346
Reds.454094.425562.395062
Padres.440252.446477.456790
White Sox.439502.445515.469136
Brewers.436810.446245.419753
Rockies.418224.438295.419753
Braves.390727.373589.413580
Phillies.372472.384782.388889

So this year the luckiest teams were the Cardinals, Royals, Rangers and Twins; the unluckiest were the Athletics, Indians and Reds.  Perhaps the most interesting division was the AL West; not only was the final weekend of the season exciting, but the true strengths of the teams were hardly recognized in the standings.  The Athletics finished last but really played better than all but the Astros; the Rangers finished first but deserved to be last.  If the ten actually best teams had made the playoffs, the Indians, Nationals and Giants would be in and the Yankees, Royals and Rangers would be out.  Nine teams better than the Rangers will be watching the playoffs at home.  The teams with the three best records in baseball were all in the NL Central, but none was one of the three truly best teams; actually, they deserved to finish in the opposite order: Cubs, Pirates, Cardinals.  Very unusually, the three best teams in baseball (Blue Jays, Dodgers, Astros) were actually unlucky and deserved better records, and the three worst teams (Phillies, Braves, Rockies) deserved even worse records.

As a longtime Blue Jays fan, the most exciting development for me is to see them make the playoffs for the first time since 1993's championship year, and as the best team in baseball.  GM Alex Anthopoulos's trade-deadline moves have been very successful, and even without baseball's best record many see the Jays as the favorite to win it all.  In the ALDS the Jays will face the Rangers, matching the best and worst playoff teams.  Unfortunately, anything can happen in a five-game series.  Ironically, the Blue Jays' World Series opponents in 1992 and 1993, the Braves and Phillies, were the worst teams in baseball this year.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Astros over RoyalsBlue Jays over AstrosBlue Jays over Dodgers
Astros over Yankees
 Blue Jays over Rangers
Dodgers over MetsDodgers over Cubs
Cubs over PiratesCubs over Cardinals
 

And what I'm rooting for is only slightly different:

 Royals over AstrosBlue Jays over RoyalsBlue Jays over Cubs
Astros over Yankees
 Blue Jays over Rangers
Mets over DodgersCubs over Mets
Cubs over PiratesCubs over Cardinals
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C

All the way, Jays!

29 September 2014

Missouri teams sneak in

Predicting the baseball postseason is an annual tradition on this otherwise defunct blog, so, as busy as I am, I'll take a few minutes to do the same kind of analysis I've done the last seven years, essentially factoring out each team's luck to see how good they really were this season.  (Actually, I'm so busy I'm just adapting last year's post with new data but no new detailed analysis.)  The Nostradamian, Pythagorean and actual win percentages for all teams in 2014:

nW%pW%W%
Angels.590428.592508.604938
Nationals.590284.595752.592593
Athletics.585115.609173.543210
Dodgers.577539.568916.580247
Pirates.561452.535499.543210
Orioles.548153.578495.592593
Giants.537648.536440.543210
Tigers.536835.532512.555556
Rays.526315.490385.475309
Mariners.524282.561398.537037
Blue Jays.517765.524015.512346
Indians.514968.511073.524691
Cardinals.512238.511979.555556
Royals.496797.519370.549383
Brewers.496051.495100.506173
Yankees.485451.478140.518519
Cubs.482200.435832.450617
Rockies.480081.463399.407407
Marlins.479829.479890.475309
Braves.478881.481237.487654
Mets.467106.508071.487654
Astros.466099.436623.432099
Reds.456053.487115.469136
Twins.455437.462029.432099
White Sox.455236.436999.450617
Padres.454984.465479.475309
Phillies.448682.452459.450617
Red Sox.446516.445214.438272
Diamondbacks.424982.414950.395062
Rangers.402902.412383.413580

So this year the luckiest teams were the Royals, Orioles and Cardinals; the unluckiest were the Rockies, Rays and Athletics.  The Yankees weren't as lucky as last year, but they deserved to have a losing record and finish in fourth place, not second.  The Rangers were really the worse Texas team by a much greater margin than the standings showed.  The eight actually best teams made the playoffs, but the other two teams to make it, the Cardinals and Royals, were very lucky and deserved it less than the Rays, Mariners, Blue Jays and Indians.

Based on the above results, it's reasonable to predict:

 Angels over AthleticsAngels over OriolesAngels over Nationals
Athletics over Royals
 Orioles over Tigers
Dodgers over CardinalsNationals over Dodgers
Pirates over GiantsNationals over Pirates
 

But what I'm rooting for is very different:

 Athletics over AngelsAthletics over OriolesAthletics over Pirates
Athletics over Royals
 Orioles over Tigers
Cardinals over DodgersPirates over Cardinals
Pirates over GiantsPirates over Nationals
 

I got all the statistics I needed for this analysis from these three pages: A B C