Pausch to remember

Randy Pausch died this morning.  His book The Last Lecture is based on a lecture he gave at Carnegie Mellon after he found that he had terminal cancer.  It's full of not empty sayings and false hopes but real stories and lessons learned from a full life.  It is the only inspirational book I've read that deserves to be called inspirational.

A look ahead

Last week I analyzed how the major-league standings would look if all teams were equally lucky in the way that runs fell among games and hits and outs fell among innings.  Well, unfortunately, not all teams are equally lucky, and only the real results matter.  But the real won-loss records so far don't predict the future; in fact, a team's Nostradamian record is a far better predictor of future wins and losses than past wins and losses.  So (using the All-Star break as the cutoff point) let's use each team's Nostradamian record to predict its winning percentage for the rest of the season and see how the final standings would look:

AL East	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
Red Sox	97.4–64.6	.600940	57–40	.587629
Rays	93.1–68.9	.574946	55–39	.585106
Yankees	85.5–76.5	.527664	50–45	.526316
Blue Jays	83.0–79.0	.512472	47–48	.494737
Orioles	78.6–83.4	.484937	45–48	.483871

AL Central	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
White Sox	94.2–67.8	.581437	54–40	.574468
Twins	85.0–77.0	.524404	53–42	.557895
Tigers	82.2–79.8	.507135	47–47	.500000
Indians	72.6–89.4	.448405	41–53	.436170
Royals	72.0–90.0	.444402	43–53	.447917

AL West	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
Angels	89.6–72.4	.552936	57–38	.600000
Athletics	88.8–73.2	.548438	51–44	.536842
Rangers	83.1–78.9	.513119	50–46	.520833
Mariners	65.6–96.4	.404811	37–58	.389474

NL East	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
Mets	87.8–74.2	.542000	51–44	.536842
Phillies	87.7–74.3	.541186	52–44	.541667
Marlins	82.7–79.3	.510535	50–45	.526316
Braves	82.7–79.3	.510198	45–50	.473684
Nationals	61.0–101.0	.376426	36–60	.375000

NL Central	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
Cubs	97.1–64.9	.599642	57–38	.600000
Cardinals	88.3–73.7	.544952	53–43	.552083
Brewers	85.8–76.2	.529915	52–43	.547368
Reds	75.2–86.8	.464356	46–50	.479167
Astros	72.4–89.6	.447143	44–51	.463158
Pirates	70.4–91.6	.434335	44–50	.468085

NL West	extrapolated		real (at ASB)
Diamondbacks	83.0–79.0	.512538	47–48	.494737
Dodgers	79.7–82.3	.491871	46–49	.484211
Giants	69.7–92.3	.430035	40–55	.421053
Rockies	68.5–93.5	.422900	39–57	.406250
Padres	68.0–94.0	.419531	37–58	.389474

For example, the Blue Jays have won 47 games so far and have 67 post-All-Star-break games.  I multiplied 67 by their Nostradamian record, .537618, to get 36.0, the number of those games they can expect to win, giving them an extrapolated final record of about 83–79.  Of course, this approach doesn't account for roster changes (such as injuries and the Sabathia, Harden and Blanton trades) or differences in schedule, but it beats assuming that winning percentages won't change.

So the Red Sox, White Sox, Cubs and Diamondbacks are likely to extend their division leads, while the Angels are likely to lose most of theirs and the NL East should remain very tight.  The Braves have been so unlucky so far that they're projected to finish fourth even though they have the best Nostradamian record in their division.

coolstandings.com, using different assumptions than I do, calculates not likely final standings but the rough probability that each team will make the playoffs.

The breaks

The All-Star break seems like a good time to evaluate the 2008 baseball season so far.  Are the Angels and Cubs really the best teams, indicating a possible Taking Care of Business World Series matchup?  Are the Rays a fluke or a genuinely good team?  Are the Padres and Indians really as bad as their win-loss records?  Or has luck shaped the current standings?

It helps to be lucky in baseball, not just in how a team's runs are bunched game to game but in how their hits and outs are bunched inning to inning.  Using my Nostradamian approach, here's what the standings would look like now if all the luck had perfectly evened out, with "deserved" wins and losses rounded to the nearest tenth:

AL East	deserved		real
Red Sox	60.2–36.8	.620804	57–40	.587629
Rays	52.7–41.3	.560900	55–39	.585106
Blue Jays	51.1–43.9	.537618	47–48	.494737
Yankees	50.3–44.7	.529575	50–45	.526316
Orioles	45.2–47.8	.486375	45–48	.483871

AL Central	deserved		real
White Sox	55.6–38.4	.591071	54–40	.574468
Tigers	48.6–45.4	.516999	47–47	.500000
Twins	45.3–49.7	.476916	53–42	.557895
Indians	43.7–50.3	.465319	41–53	.436170
Royals	42.2–53.8	.439291	43–53	.447917

AL West	deserved		real
Athletics	53.7–41.3	.564880	51–44	.536842
Rangers	48.2–47.8	.501897	50–46	.520833
Angels	46.2–48.8	.486204	57–38	.600000
Mariners	40.5–54.5	.426559	37–58	.389474

NL East	deserved		real
Braves	53.4–41.6	.561970	45–50	.473684
Mets	52.2–42.8	.549314	51–44	.536842
Phillies	51.9–44.1	.540487	52–44	.541667
Marlins	46.4–48.6	.488159	50–45	.526316
Nationals	36.3–59.7	.378500	36–60	.375000

NL Central	deserved		real
Cubs	56.9–38.1	.599135	57–38	.600000
Cardinals	51.3–44.7	.534579	53–43	.552083
Brewers	48.0–47.0	.505167	52–43	.547368
Reds	42.5–53.5	.442814	46–50	.479167
Astros	40.3–54.7	.424435	44–51	.463158
Pirates	36.4–57.6	.387681	44–50	.468085

NL West	deserved		real
Diamondbacks	51.1–43.9	.537778	47–48	.494737
Dodgers	47.8–47.2	.502732	46–49	.484211
Padres	43.9–51.1	.462149	37–58	.389474
Rockies	42.9–53.1	.447119	39–57	.406250
Giants	42.1–52.9	.442770	40–55	.421053

So far, the luckiest 2008 teams are the Angels and Twins, who both deserve to have losing records, and the Pirates, who deserve an even worse record than they have.  The unluckiest teams are the Braves, who deserve to be atop their division instead of in 4th, and the Padres, who deserve to be 3rd rather than last.  The AL East is certainly the strongest division—it has the 1st, 6th, 10th, 12th and 18th best teams in baseball.  The NL West is the weakest but it's also by far the least lucky; the NL Central is almost as weak but has been the luckiest.  Some think the AL West race is over, but the Athletics have played well enough to have a solid lead in what is really a weak division.  They trail only because of results like their last three-game series: they outscored the Angels 13–10 but lost two of three.  The Rays have been a little lucky but are a genuinely good team, which is no surprise to some.  The Nationals are truly the worst team, and given the strength of the NL East, they probably have the lowest chance of making the playoffs.  Based on this analysis, the Red Sox and Cubs seem likeliest to make it to the Series.

The Wikipedia article on Pythagorean expectation now calls my Nostradamian approach "second-order wins" and even recommends using Base Runs, as I do.  Cool.